CNN Opinion Research Poll – September 23-25, 2011 Obama Approval and GOP Presidential Candidate Field Analysis
By Albert N. Milliron, Managing Editor, Iron Mill Interactive Media
The latest CNN poll was conducted by telephonic interviews with 1,010 adults. The poll was conducted by ORC International between September 23-25, 2011. The margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3 percentage points. 917 of those interview were registered voters. Despite what people think, over 200 of the interviews were by cell phone contacts.
Our review will look at this poll and the previous poll from the same organization. This way, we one can be assured that comparisons are closely related to methodology and error margins.
President Obama’s approval rating is currently 45% up 2 points from the previous Poll where his approval was 43%. The change is statistically insignificant which will be hereafter referred to as (SI). The Presidents disapproval rating is currently at 52% that is 3 points less than the last poll where is disapproval was 55% (SI) Although the results are within the MOE The President is fairing better from the standpoint of those polled compared to the last poll three weeks ago.
When asked if Barack Obama had the personality and leadership qualities required needed in a President, 58% of the respondents said Obama had the skill set they would want in the leader of the Free world. 41% disagreed with that assessment.
The Republican Presidential Candidate Field
When asked which candidate one would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012
30% said Perry down 2%
22% said Romney up 1%
11% said Gingrich up 4% (Significant)
9% said Cain up 3%
7% said Paul -6% (Significant)
6% said Bachmann down 1%
3% said Santorum up 1%
1% said Huntsman down 1%
3% Someone else up 1%
5% No one up 1%
3% No opinion (UNC)
Our analysis is that Gingrich had a significant up trend and Paul had a significant downturned since the last poll three Weeks ago. Other polls reviewed do not correlate with these findings as Paul is running forth in many national polls, Gingrich has received some endorsements and has done better in the most recent debate, this may account for his up trend of late.
Politisite looks at trending and momentum closely related to stocks (the Trend is your friend) other pollsters and poll commentators come from a baseball modality which has some similarities but some significant differences. We have expanded on our modality in prior reviews
Head to Head Match Ups
We will provided the Republican candidates who are close to the Margin of Error to President Barack Obama in a Head to Head Match-up
Obama 49% Romney 48% – Obama +1
Obama 51% Paul 47% – Obama +4
Obama 51% Perry 46% – Obama +5
As it stands in this poll, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the only candidate in the Republican field who is within the MOE of President Obama. Ron Paul is second withing 4 points of the President, and Texas Governor Rick Perry is third within 5 points of the President.
If this where our only poll, we would recommend that the nominee would be Mitt Romney as he has the best chance of winning against President Obama. Conversely the Republican field is lead by Rick Perry by 8 percentages points. Meaning that if there were a national election for the Republican Nominee, Rick Perry would win by 8 percentage points. Well above the polls MOE of +/- 3%
See the full poll results in PDF format here
We will included the top three stories on this poll here
Perry still leads Republican pack – CNN/ORC poll | Front Row Washington
Rick Perry is still the front-runner in the field of 2012 Republican presidential hopefuls, according to a new CNN/ORC International Poll released on Monday.
The Texas governor’s latest debate performance — rated shaky by some political analysts — apparently did not disappoint actual potential voters who support him.
Perry leads his nearest opponent, Mitt Romney 28 percent to 21 percent among Republican voters, according to the poll taken over the weekend — after last Thursday’s Republican debate in Orlando, Florida.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 10 percent support. The other declared Republican candidates trail far behind in the single digits.
That’s with Sarah Palin in the lineup.
CNN Poll: Perry still at top but Romney stronger vs. Obama – CNN Political Ticker
“Did Perry’s performance in the most recent debate affect the horse race? Maybe yes, but maybe no,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Perry’s support is down just two points, and Romney is up only one to three points – and since all those numbers are well within the sampling error, it doesn’t look like much has changed, possibly because average voters aren’t as plugged into the debates as political junkies are. If the debates have had an effect, it may be mostly in favor of Gingrich, whose support went from 5 percent in mid-September to 10 percent now.”
According to the poll, the president’s overall approval rating, at 45 percent, is essentially unchanged since July. Fifty-two percent of all Americans disapprove of his job performance to date.
The 2012 election will not be an up-or-down vote on Obama, but rather a choice between the president and another candidate, so head-to-head match-ups against the top GOP candidates are a better test of Obama’s electoral strength.
The survey indicates that Romney fares best against Obama. It’s basically all tied up with 49 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Romney in a hypothetical two-way match-up. According to the poll, Obama holds a five point margin over Perry, 51 percent to 46 percent.
Perry still leading in new CNN poll « Hot Air
Even more tellingly, voters still don’t appear to be looking for another late-entry champion. Palin dropped by more than half in the last two weeks, from 15% to 7%, and Ron Paul dropped from 12% to 7%. “Someone else” blipped up a point to 3%, a third of what that choice got in July and half of what it got in August. Herman Cain picked up a couple of points to tie Palin and Paul at 7% for his best showing in the series, while Michele Bachmann stayed at 4%, down from a peak of 12% in July. Taking Palin out makes no real difference in vote distribution, either, nor does “Someone else” increase its share from 3%.
Perry’s standing hasn’t changed much in the general election, either. Among registered voters in the wider sample, Obama beats Perry 51/46, unchanged in the last month. The same is true for Obama/Romney, the same as August at 49/48. Those come as Obama’s job approval remains underwater at 45/52 and voters only agree with him on the issues at 46/52.
It looks like voters will be more patient with Perry than perhaps some of the pundits have been.