2012 Republican Presidential Nomination
By Albert N. Milliron
Politisite Poll Average (PPA) – Note the Politisite Poll Average takes the high poll and the low poll and throw them out (e.g. like Olympic scores). We think by doing so we eliminate polls that over or understate the results due to their methodology. We do not name the polls we throw out because, we do not want to give the opinion that certain polls are”bad” or others are “good” . We simply believe that by tossing the high and low poll, the number provide a better representation of the actual position of the candidates during the time we report.
Even with our methodology, the numbers are within a few tenth to a few percentage points of the well known Real Clear Politics Average (RCP)
The RCP Number will be represented in (Bold)
RCP – Candidate – (PPA) – Position 11/13 – 11/30 2011
27.5 Gingrich 25.0% 4.5
20.0 Romney 20.5% (4.5)
13.8 Cain 15.0% (10.0)
8.0 Paul 8.5% (16.5)
7.3 Perry 7.0% (18.0)
4.3 Bachmann 4.0% (21.0)
2.8 Santorum 3.0% (22.0)
2.3 Huntsman 2.5% (22.5)
The next analysis we perform is momentum trending. While Mitt Romney calls corporations people, we look at people as a corporation and consider their stock evaluation. We believe that trend lines with candidates act close to trend-lines in stock charts. It has often by said by momentum investors that, “the trend is your friend”. There is even a stock program where folks can invest in the 2012 nomination from President via a company called, “intrade”. Candidates like corporations can change momentum by having a major change in their “stock” like a Gaff or something revealed in their personal life. A candidate may also reveal something that is outside of his “base” expectations that could cause his financials support to falter or public opinion to be drastically changed.
This election has had its change in the leader board almost every month. Just two weeks ago, Herman Cain was leading in the polls and Newt Gingrich was well behind in single digits. This week, Gingrich is on top.
Lets take a look at each candidates momentum.
Gingrich is a high flag and may go into a consolidation phase just before the Iowa caucuses. This will come as oppositional research will be released by other GOP candidates who are struggling to raise in the polls. We are seeing Perry and Bachmann putting out fact checking and information sheets out on Gingrich now that he has risen to the top of the polls.
Romney: is like a utility stock. The price remains pretty stable but you get a dividend each quarter. Romney is playing the candidate who is above all and has selected to fight the democrat incumbent President Barack Obama. Romney has secured most of the moderate Republicans and the real fight is for the conservative side of the party.
Cain: was a momentum stock who came from almost no name recognition, but as people began to become familiar with the product and the campaign, folks began supporting him. Cain rose above the other candidates but began getting attacked by the left as an “Uncle Tom”, Unaware of the plight of Blacks in America. These attacks came from prominent Black leaders from the democratic party. These attacks only seemed to increase his popularity. Then he was attacked for sexual allegations, none substantiated, but done in a One, two punch hit job fashion. Few campaigns can survive these type of attacks. Seems the attack was similar to the sexual allegations presented when another conservative black man was nominated for the Supreme Court of the United States, One Clarence Thomas. He dropped 11 points within a week and another 4 points from a high of 26.
Perry: Was like other candidates who are asked to get into a Presidential race, they start out high like at an initial public offering and then as the new news wears off the numbers drop. In politics it is call the, “new penny” or the “Shinny thing”. Perry performed poorly in two 3 debates and appeared to loose his way while in front of his largest audiences. His poll numbers have dropped since. Perry reminds me of Fred Thompson. Perry and Thompson do well on the trail to smaller crowds but have a southern way that is appreciated by those who understand.
I will end with
Ron Paul: Dr Paul is a Libertarian. He is a strict constitutionalist. Paul has some of the most dedicated followers I have seen both in 2008 and this election cycle. I expect him to do well in an Caucus that has open voting. His people mob online polls and caucus straw polls and his people do well. In state elections, I expect him to do better then 2008 but mostly under 11%. He could come in second in Iowa just by the process alone. Paul appeals to many conservatives and probably was the real beginning of the tea party movement. His poll numbers fluctuate like a stock that does well and then gets bad press. Seems when Paul goes on Foreign policy and seems to blame America for the terror attacks he looses support from those looking for a true conservative. But Paul is also socially liberal in some components that scare aware the Christian conservatives. Dr. Pauls followers also can be their worst enemies by attacking any post that may put Paul in a negative light. It happens here, even though we posted the straw poll results that support Paul and showed him in a good rank. The problem comes when Paul’s followers don’t read any further then the article they are complaining about. It would be nice if they would learn from that as they hurt Paul in the end.
Who is out Next:
Bachmann: will not do well in Iowa even though she has a strong Faith that Iowa looks Toward.
Huntsman: should be out all ready but he wants to get through New Hampshire. he will be gone on the day after New Hampshire.
Santorum: Will be another who should have done well in Iowa. I don’t see him making it out of Iowa.
Why the Christian candidates out? Even with Iowa looking for candidates of faith in most years, they are looking for a combination of Faith/economic savvy.
Gingrich “I’ve changed, I am a Grandfather, I have solutions is playing”
Romney: Flip Flips follow a well shod man. The videos are clear, he looks too plastic. Even though it should not be Iowa and South Carolina will have issues with Mormonism. We should be passed that. Last study on religion I looked at showed that Democrats have more problem with Mormons then Conservatives.