Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the South Carolina Primary for January 21, 2012
- Newt Gingrich – 32% (+1)
- Mitt Romney – 31%
- Rick Santorum – 18%
- Ron Paul – 14%
- Rick Perry – 2%
- Others – 3%
We do see some heavy downward pressure from the potential interview of Newt Gingrich former wife. We expect with the election cycle filled with political punditry following this Thursday nite interview, we think that there will be a 5 percentage point difference than what our projections reflect. That downward pressure could put Gingrich at 27% with a Margin of error of 4%. Santorum could rise to 23% (+/-4) . This would alter the results to a Romney win, Gingrich second, and Santorum third.
Editors note: I am a registered voter in South Carolina. I needs to be noted that my evaluation does not necessarily mean I will be voting for the individual we have place in the top spot.
I expect too see some of you in the Press filing Rooms in Columbia on Election Nite.