Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the Florida Primary for January 31, 2012
- Mitt Romney – 42% (+13)
- Newt Gingrich – 29%
- Rick Santorum – 13%
- Ron Paul – 10%
We do see some downward Trending on Mitt Romney, we attribute this to over kill as he is advertising at rates in excess of seven to one in some areas of Florida. Gingrich is beginning to Trend upwards and should fall within 4 percentage points of our stated projection. We are more confindent that he will end up higher rather that lower.
Santorum has continued to stay in a consolidation pattern and we have a high confidence level that he will come out right at the thirteen percent we have stated here. We expect for him to do much better in the panhandle than in other areas of Florida. We think he will win several counties in Westren Florida over Newt Gingrich.
Ron Paul has slight upward momentum and we could see him doing a bit better than our projections.
Based on our observations, Mitt Romney is exhausting voters with heavy advertising and Robocalls we see a potential for angry voters tired of Romney strong arm tactic. Newt will come in Second some 9-13 points below Romney. Newt will do better in the more conservative panhandle of Florida. Ron Paul should stay within the 9-12 point range.