Could Santorum upset Romney in the Midwest

Saturday’s victory in the Nevada caucuses gives Mitt Romney double-digit wins in three of the four major regions of the country: the Northeast (New Hampshire), the West (Nevada) and the South (Florida).

Photo Credit: Albert Millliron / Iron Mill News

Yes, Mr. Romney lost one Southern state, South Carolina, which is arguably more representative of the region than Florida. But relatively few states in the South are competitive in the general election. Florida, where Mr. Romney already won, and Virginia, where he and Ron Paul are the only candidates on the ballot and where the wealthy demographics favor him, are the two most important exceptions.

Instead, if Mr. Romney loses the nomination, it is likely to be because of the one region that has yet to give him a victory: the Midwest.

A contiguous block of eight swing states containing 95 electoral votes — Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — determine the winners and losers in most presidential elections. When at least six or seven of these states are added to the state bases of the Democratic or Republican candidate, he or she is all but guaranteed a victory. (Barack Obama won seven of them in 2008). Only when they are about evenly divided, as in 2000 or 2004, do swing states in other parts of the country — like Nevada or New Hampshire or Florida — tend to make much difference.

Read more by Nate Silver at One Test Left for Romney

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About Albert N. Milliron 6987 Articles

Albert Milliron is the founder of Politisite. Milliron has been credentialed by most major news networks for Presidential debates and major Political Parties for political event coverage. Albert maintains relationships with the White House and State Department to provide direct reporting from the Administration’s Press team. Albert is the former Public Relations Chairman of the Columbia County Republican Party in Georgia. He is a former Delegate.

Milliron is a veteran of the US Army Medical Department and worked for Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Psychiatry.

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