While the national media focuses on polls from Reuters and Pew that use skewed samples to show Barack Obama’s approval rating going back up, The Hill takes a look at what might come in the future — and it’s not pretty for the President. In a survey of 1,000 likely voters in the 2012 general election, almost half expect the Supreme Court to overturn ObamaCare, with only 29% confident of its constitutional legitimacy. And that’s not the worst of the poll, either:
Half of likely voters expect the Supreme Court to strike down President Obama’s signature healthcare law, and strong majorities see other major policies coming from the White House making life more difficult for themselves and the country, according to this week’s The Hill Poll.
The poll indicated that 49 percent of likely voters said they expect a court ruling that is unfavorable to the Affordable Care Act, while just 29 percent think it will be upheld and 22 percent aren’t sure.
On economic issues, 62 percent of voters say Obama’s policies will increase the debt, while 25 percent think they will cut it, and by a 48-percent-to-38-percent margin, voters believe those policies will increase joblessness rather than put people back to work.
On energy, 58 percent say Obama’s policies will result in gasoline prices increasing, while just 20 percent expect them to cut prices — and by a 46-percent-to-36-percent margin, voters believe they will cause the United States to become even more dependent on foreign oil.
The sample in this case is a little skewed, but in an unusual direction. The D/R/I is 32/36/32 for an R+4 advantage, one of the rare occasions when a pollster favors Republicans. The four-point advantage for the GOP has low odds of becoming reality in the fall, though; the midterm elections, without a Democrat defending the White House, had a 35/35/30 split in CNN exit polling. Republicans will do well if they get to that kind of parity in November with Obama at the top of the ticket.
Even adjusting for the R+4, these numbers look very bad for the President, especially on gas prices. Overall, blame for increases in gas prices falls on Obama by 38 points, which means he’s especially vulnerable if prices shoot up this summer as they did in 2008 and 2010. Younger voters put even more blame on Obama, 70/8, as do lower-income earners ($40-60K is the worst for Obama, 75/13 but the under-$20K is almost as bad at 62/15), perhaps because they feel the loss of disposable income and capacity for independent travel even more. Independents blame Obama 61/13, while only a plurality of Democrats think Obama has made gas prices lower, 31/42.
Rasmussen also polled likely voters on ObamaCare, and finds that support for repealing it has remained remarkably consistent:
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on the constitutionality of the national health care law next week, and the number of voters who Strongly Support the law’s repeal is now at an eight-month high.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 56% at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor it. Thirty-nine percent (39%) oppose repeal, with 29% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording,click here.)
Overall support for repeal is up three points from two weeks ago and is at its highest level since last September. The number that Strongly Favors repealing the law is at its highest point since July of last year. Since the law’s passage, most voters have favored repeal in nearly every survey, with support running as high as 62%. Opposition to repeal has ranged from 32% to 44%.
Strong support for repeal hit an eight-month high, but the range on overall demand for repeal in those eight months has been very steady indeed. Today’s number is 56%; the lowest it has gone in those eight months is 51%, and the high was 57%. Opposition to repeal has never gone above 42% in the past two years. At the moment, independents back repeal 57/39, with almost half (48%) strongly supporting its repeal. Even among Obama’s natural constituencies, support for repeal is strong or at a dead heat with support for ObamaCare: women (51/42), 18-29YOs (47/45 split), black voters (48/49 split), under-$20K income (50/35), $20-40K (53/39), and so on.
Given that the only real accomplishments of the Obama term has been ObamaCare, the failed stimulus bill, and Dodd-Frank, the fundamentals of this election look very bad for Obama — and will get worse if the Supreme Court throws out ObamaCare and gas prices continue to rise.
Update: I almost missed this from the Washington Post, which looks even worse:
Most Americans want the Supreme Court to invalidate at least part of the landmark health-care law that was passed in 2010, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. …
More than four in 10 — 42 percent — want the high court to throw out the entire law, 25 percent want to do away with the mandate alone and a similar proportion wants the justices to uphold the entire law.
Overall, among general population adults, 67% want the Supreme Court to partially or completely overturn Obama’s signature accomplishment. That number rises to 70% among independents, and it’s 48% among Democrats.