Today marks the beginning of Gallup’s 5-day running average of the Obama vs. Romney daily tracking poll. It is of Registered Voters:
- Romney 47%
- Obama 45%
There have been earlier Gallup head-to-head polls between these two, but they were always made in the context of a GOP horse-race. Those unfortunately nearly always had an inherent bias. Some supporters of Candidate A would claim that they would rather vote for Obama than Candidate B. They hoped that this would make Candidate B look worse than he really was. This bias would throw off the results by as much as 5 percentage points or more.
This is the first head-to-head Romney versus Obama poll that Gallup has taken since Mitt’s last serious opponent, Senator Santorum, bowed out last week. Mitt is now recognized as the winner of the GOP horse-race by nearly everyone. Certainly there are some hold-outs, but for the most part they are inconsequential. They might affect the results a percentage point or two. The head-to-head polling should now be more representative of how people really feel about the race.