Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Rasmussen versus the world

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Fri May 11, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Rasmussen versus the world

by Steve SingiserFollow for Daily Kos Elections

Rasmussen’s status as an infallible pollster to the right, and a inevitable source of derision to the left, has been well established for years. But, looking at some of their recent polling (most notably, their daily tracking poll of the presidential race), it becomes difficult not to ask some serious questions about their data. When you are on an island as often as they have been lately, they are either prescient, or completely full of shit.

And while we have to wait till November to find out which one of those polar-opposite descriptions match the House of Ras, it is worth exploring today how far on the island they are, in a number of races.

Before that, though, the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (50-43)

OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (47-43)

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (49-45)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Rob McKenna (R) 40, Jay Inslee (D) 38

WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tommy Thompson (R) 50, Tammy Baldwin (D) 38; Mark Neumann (R) 44, Baldwin 42; Baldwin 45, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you after the jump …

  • I could pick on the House of Rasmussen for their finding in today’s daily tracking poll, of course. After all, no one has had Romney leading by seven points in this entire election cycle. I am referring, however, to their entire body of work. Look at today’s Wisconsin Senate poll, which finds Republican Tommy Thompson up 50-38 over Democrat Tammy Baldwin. In this entire election cycle, and the nearly dozen polls on the Wisconsin Senate race that have been conducted, only one other poll gave Thompson a double-digit edge. It was, of course, another Rasmussen poll. The biggest Thompson lead recorded by any non-Ras pollster was a six-point edge for Thompson in a February poll conducted by Marquette Law School. And we see this in other races, too: the only other pollster seeing a double-digit lead for Denny Rehberg in Montana over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester was a Republican pollster (Public Opinion Strategies). In Nevada, a dozen polls put the race between incumbent Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley Berkley within 1-6 points. Rasmussen gives him an eleven point edge. And so it goes, across virtually every race for which Rasmussen offers up data. The consistency of it has made it, at this point, almost prudent to just shave a few points off of the Republican total, or add a thumb on the scale of the Democrat, whenever a poll drops from the House of Ras.
  • In non-Ras news, Democrats have to be happy about a SUSA poll out of Washington state, and apprehensive about one from Oregon. In Washington, we get further evidence that Democratic gubernatorial contender Jay Inslee has closed an earlier polling gap with GOP state attorney general Rob McKenna, pushing this race closer to legitimate toss-up territory. Meanwhile, however, SurveyUSA has a much closer presidential race in Oregon than any other presidential pollster has had to date. Oregon has only been polled four times, but the Obama lead in those polls has ranged from 8-14 points. Looking inside the numbers, Democrats could make a pretty good argument that Republicans were oversampled (GOPers made up 27 percent of the 2008 presidential electorate, but make up 35 percent of the sample here). But the liberal-conservative gap in this poll (Cons +9) is identical to what it was in the 2008 exit polling. For my money, that’s a better indicator of a way-off sample than party ID, which I find to be more fluid. Where I see an issue: I am not buying the spread among moderates. The president typically wins moderates by a huge margin nationally. In 2008, he won Oregon moderates by a 67-29 margin. Therefore, it seems a bit pessimistic for the Obama team to see a 47-37 spread among moderates here.
  • Be sure to come back to Daily Kos on Sunday. With six months left to go until Election Day, it is high time for the third installment of the “top 10” list of states that you will be paying rapt attention to come Election Night. There is a new entry that debuted all the way up at number 5, and a brand new number 1. Be sure to check out Daily Kos on Sunday night to read the entire list.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri May 11, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by

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About Albert N. Milliron 6987 Articles

Albert Milliron is the founder of Politisite. Milliron has been credentialed by most major news networks for Presidential debates and major Political Parties for political event coverage. Albert maintains relationships with the White House and State Department to provide direct reporting from the Administration’s Press team. Albert is the former Public Relations Chairman of the Columbia County Republican Party in Georgia. He is a former Delegate.

Milliron is a veteran of the US Army Medical Department and worked for Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Psychiatry.

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