Democrats are running around with more optimism than the 2012 Election polls suggest. Even a recent Gallup survey says most Americans see Obama winning in 2012.
Most Republicans think that a change in Presidency is a No Brainier, but understand that politics is often driven by emotion and political strategy that presses minorities and woman to think that the GOP is not a real choice for them.
The polls are clear (but we don’t put much stock in polls 6 month out) President Obama’s reelection will not be a walk in the park. He will have to fight this one out as many states he easily carried have become toss-ups.
The GOP has gotten behind Romney because a second Obama term is unacceptable to them.
Even Left leaning publications like The New York Times have come to realize that Obama is in a tough situation.
Six months before Election Day, nine states that President Obama carried four years ago are now firmly up for grabs in the latest New York Times ranking of key battleground states, while Mitt Romney holds an early advantage in two other states the president won in 2008.
As the general election race intensifies, Mr. Obama begins with a slim edge in several critical states and has a variety of paths to winning re-election, according to the Times analysis of electoral votes. But there are considerable opportunities for Mr. Romney, whose candidacy is in a position of strength in enough states where a victory could deny the president a second term.
The Times ratings, which will be reviewed periodically throughout the campaign, find nine states are locked in the tossup category: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
In the quest to win the necessary 270 electoral votes, the president has 185 solidly on the Democratic side and Mr. Romney has 158 in safe Republican territory. The analysis finds 115 electoral votes in the tossup category, with 32 leaning Democratic and 48 leaning Republican.
The Times rankings are based on interviews with Republican and Democratic strategists and the economic climate, political volatility, polling and electoral history in each state. Here is a brief rationale for the current collection of tossup states:
Colorado: The president’s victory here in 2008 was among his favorites, after the state had voted Republican in eight of the nine prior presidential races. A wariness of big government is testing Mr. Obama this time, but Mr. Romney faces his own challenge appealing to independents and women, whose support was critical to Democratic wins in races for the Senate and governor in 2010.
Florida: A wave of home foreclosures and a sour economy has complicated Mr. Obama’s path to a repeat victory here. A growing number of conservative retirees offer Mr. Romney hope, but the outcome could hinge on whether he can win over Hispanic voters, particularly younger Cuban Americans in southern Florida and Puerto Ricans in central Florida.
Iowa: The state that paved Mr. Obama’s path to the presidency could complicate his re-election, despite an economy that is more robust than many other states. Mr. Romney faces a challenge of exciting evangelical voters who did not support him earlier this year at the Iowa caucuses. In a close race, these six electoral votes are critical to both sides.
New Hampshire: The president is leading in some early polls, but the state is too volatile to make any predictions at this point. Mr. Romney has been seen as a favorite son, having been governor in the state next door, Massachusetts. The Republican gains in 2010 have created a backlash among some Democrats in a state that will be a backdrop for the presidential campaign.
Nevada: The Romney campaign has a ready-made laboratory to argue that the policies of the Obama administration have not worked, particularly in a state with the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment. But the president is traveling to the state again and again, hoping his appeal to Hispanic and lower-income voters will deliver the state again.
Ohio: It is hard to picture Mr. Romney winning the White House without Ohio. An improving economy could help Mr. Obama, particularly with a revival in the auto industry, but the state’s conservative leanings still pose a significant challenge. It will likely break late, with neither candidate winning the early enthusiasm race.