In GA, 8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Republican Perdue 3 Points Atop Democrat Nunn in Battle for Open US Senate Seat; Gov Race Now Tied; GOP Candidates Still Lead in Contests For Lt Gov, Atty Gen, and Secy of State; School Supt Race Heats Up:
Democrat Michelle Nunn has made progress over the past 3 weeks, slicing into Republican David Perdue’s previous 9-point lead and trimming that to 3, according to the latest exclusive 11Alive News tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA. Perdue led 50% to 41% on 08/18/14, when many voters were still on vacation. Today, with most of Georgia back from summer break, Perdue leads 47% to 44%. The contest has national implications for which party shall control the US Senate in the next Congress.
The 08/18/14 poll and today’s 09/09/14 poll were conducted identically. Most of the poll-on-poll movement in the Senate race comes from women, who had favored Nunn by 2 points, but now favor Nunn by 12 points. Among moderates, Nunn had led by 19 points, now by 28 points. In greater Atlanta, Nunn had led by 11 points, now by 18. South and East of Atlanta, which includes Columbus, Macon and Savannah, Nunn had trailed by 8, now leads by 3, a gain of 11. Libertarian Amanda Swafford throws a monkey wrench into any political calculus, getting 5% of the vote today. To avoid a runoff, Perdue or Nunn need to get to 50% on 11/04/14. If neither does, a 12/04/14 Top-2 runoff follows.
In the contest for Governor of GA, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal has watched a 9-point lead evaporate over the past 3 weeks, and now finds himself running effectively even with Democratic challenger Jason Carter, 45% Deal, 44% Carter. Among voters age 35 to 49, many of whom are just now tuning into the race, Deal led by 23 points in August, now trails by 5, a 28-point left turn. Deal had led by 3 among women, now trails by 10, a 13-point left turn. Carter gains ground among Independents, where he had trailed by 21, now by 14. And Carter gains ground among moderates, where he had led by 16, now by 31. In greater Atlanta, Carter leads by 20 points today, up from 14 points in mid-August. In South and East GA, Carter had trailed by 10, now leads by 2. Complicating the race is Libertarian Andrew Hunt, who today is
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